Cash Transfers and Guaranteed Minimum Income Programs:
Research, Evaluation, and Policy
Prague, Czech Republic
September 9-10, 2024
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“Effects of Recent Guaranteed Income Programs in High-Income Countries: A Systematic Literature Review”
Joanna Woronkowicz and Douglas Noonan, Indiana University
In recent years, cash transfers, including guaranteed income (GI) programs, have become a major focus of efforts to reduce poverty in both advanced and developing economies. Governments in high-income countries have experimented with GI programs since at least the 1970s, and interest in these programs has grown significantly, particularly due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper presents the results of a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature on GI programs in high-income countries, with a particular focus on more substantial guaranteed minimum income programs.
Our systematic review covers more than 30 empirical studies from a search of over 1700 papers. These studies, which use quantitative or mixed methods, focus on GI programs in high-income countries such as the United States, Canada, and Finland. We examine the diverse characteristics of these programs, including their geographic reach, target populations, and the size and frequency of cash transfers. Our review highlights the wide range of program goals, strategies, and the analytic methods used to evaluate them. The findings from these studies are mixed and sometimes conflicting, but there are generally positive effects on financial outcomes.
We also conduct a meta-analysis focusing on a subset of studies that use a randomized controlled trial design. These studies feature intentional randomization in participant selection, treatment and control groups, and baseline estimates of population characteristics. The meta-analysis encompasses well over 100 outcomes across various domains, including household income and spending, physical health, mental health, and labor market participation. We present standardized estimates for each outcome of interest, finding uneven support for effects in these domains, influenced by differences in program goals and analytic strategies.
This paper aims to contribute to the growing body of knowledge on cash transfer programs by synthesizing existing evidence on research design and related theory, identifying gaps in knowledge about implementation challenges and effects on recipient well-being, and highlighting areas for future research. Our findings will be particularly relevant to policymakers and researchers interested in the design, implementation, and evaluation of cash transfer programs.